Previewing The Final Four

 

At RealGM, a look at why Kentucky is the overwhelming favorite to cut down the nets in New Orleans:

These teams have been drilled constantly for nine months and these players have been playing basketball in national competitions since they were 12-years-old. For most of them, it’s the biggest game they will ever be a part of; for the rest, a strong performance could make them millions of dollars while a weak one could be the difference between a career in the NBA or in Europe. 

The coaches who didn’t know what they were doing, even if they had more talent, were ruthlessly eliminated over the last two weeks. The teams that are left can run offensive and defensive sets correctly and their coaches know exactly the right buttons to push. What it’s going to come down to is who has the best buttons. 

Basketball is live action chess. The five offensive players move in unison in order to create an open shot at the basket, while the five defensive players try to prevent one. Teams run sets to create individual matchups they can exploit, forcing defenses to commit two players to stop one, which in turn creates an open shot for an offensive player. 

The problem for the other three teams in the Final Four is they don’t have any individual matchups they can exploit against Kentucky. Very, very few teams in college basketball do, which is why the Wildcats went 36-2 in this season. Of their wins, only three (vs. UNC, at Tennessee, at Florida) were by fewer than five points.

NBA Stardom Not In Cards For Thomas Robinson, Jared Sullinger

At SBNation, a look at the subtle flaws in the games of Final Four stars Jared Sullinger and Thomas Robinson:

The history of the NBA Draft is littered with players who were overvalued because of a strong showing in the NCAA Tournament. Players are often judged individually for what is really a team accomplishment: Sullinger and Robinson didn't "get it done." Kansas and Ohio State did. 

Bill Self and Thad Matta are two of the best coaches in the country, not only in terms of in-game tactical adjustments but overall program construction. The Jayhawks and the Buckeyes are perennial Final Four contenders not just because they have elite talent, but because their coaches deploy their personnel in a way that maximizes their strengths and minimizes their weaknesses. 

What makes Sullinger such a special college player is his advanced low post game, but without any lift in his legs, that's not going to work at the next level. The quality of interior defense is the biggest difference between the NBA and the NCAA; next year, Sullinger will go from facing 6'10+ athletes once every few weeks to every single night. Just try to envision him scoring over Tyson Chandler in an isolation situation. 

Robinson, meanwhile, is almost the inverse of Sullinger: an elite athlete with a rudimentary offensive skill-set. He gets a lot of his points on hustle plays and pure strength and athleticism, but he can struggle to create his own shot against NBA-caliber frontlines like NC State (7-17 shooting) and UNC (6-16).

The Unlikely Emergence Of Brandan Wright

 

At RealGM, a look at why Brandan Wright's emergence in year 5 of his NBA career shows why teams are so reluctant to give up on young big men:

It’s not like he blew the doors off in his one season at North Carolina either, where he averaged 15 points and six rebounds for a Tar Heels team that advanced to the Final Four the year after he left. And after making over $10 million in the NBA, he seemed like the poster child for the problem with valuing potential over production. 

However, the potential was still there: Wright has a 7’4 wingspan, a 35 inch vertical and a soft lefty touch (career 70.1% free-throw shooting percentage). He was a McDonald’s All-American in high school who was ranked No. 3 in the class of 2006, ahead of players like Thaddeus Young, Ty Lawson and Brook Lopez. 

Because of the scarcity of 6’10+ athletes in the world, Wright has gotten chance after chance to prove his worth in the NBA. That’s why the Mavericks have a second 7’0 project from the 2007 draft (Yi Jianlian) on their bench as well as another (Sean Williams) they carried for most of the season. In contrast, Acie Law, Al Thornton, Julian Wright and Morris Almond, 2007 first-rounders who have already washed out of the NBA, will have an extremely tough time making it back, since there is a surplus of perimeter players in every draft class.

NBA Draft Stocks In The NCAA Tournament

At SB Nation, a look at which players helped and hurt their draft stock in the first two weekends of the NCAA Tournament:

STOCK UP: Bradley Beal, Florida 

The talent was always there, but it's been fairly well hidden most of the season on a Florida team built around a shoot-first, shoot-second and shoot-third backcourt of Kenny Boynton and Erving Walker. 

There isn't a player in the country more athletic than Beal, a 6'3 210 shooting guard with a 6'7 wingspan and video game speed. Before the Gators' Sweet 16 matchup with Marquette, many analysts were saying Big East Player of the Year Jae Crowder was the best player on the floor. There wasn't anyone saying that after Beal carried Florida to the victory, putting up 21 points on 8-10 shooting with six rebounds, four assists and two blocks. 

Earlier in the season, I thought Andre Iguodala was Beal's ceiling, but that may be closer to his basement. Because Billy Donovan decided to build his offense around a 5'5 PG who lives to take pull-up three-pointers with 25 seconds left on the shot clock, it's hard to say how good Beal would be if he could dominate the ball for 30 minutes a night.

The End Of The Brendan Haywood Era

At SB Nation Dallas, a look at why Brendan Haywood isn't as valuable as either of his two backups:

Ian Mahinmi and Brandan Wright have played well in his absence, and unless the team is playing one of the handful of the league's true low post scorers, Haywood isn't as valuable as either of his back-ups. 

The problem with Haywood starts with how he "fits" with the rest of the line-up. An 11-year NBA veteran at the age of 32, he no longer has much lateral mobility. On a veteran Dallas which allows so much dribble penetration and struggles to get back in transition, this is a serious problem. 

With two aging 7'0 in Dirk and Haywood, the Mavericks start one of the least athletic front-courts in the league. Both Wright and Mahinmi have far more bounce in their step, which significantly improves Dallas' overall athleticism, and both have higher per-36 minute block averages than Haywood.

The Cautionary Tale Of Harrison Barnes

 

At RealGM, a look at why coming back to school was a no-win situation for Harrison Barnes:

Barnes was one of the most heralded high school recruits in recent memory, the first freshman to be named a preseason All-American since voting for the awards began in 1986-87. As a result, college basketball fans, most of whom had never seen him play before, expected the 6’8 small forward to put together the same type of dominant freshman season as Carmelo Anthony, Kevin Durant and Michael Beasley had. 

However, now that we have a sample size of 75 collegiate games, one thing is pretty clear: Barnes isn’t that type of player. He’s an extremely skilled 6’8, 215 small forward with a good handle and an excellent jump shot, but he doesn’t have the athletic ability of an All-NBA caliber performer. 

Like Jimmer Fredette, Barnes is an excellent shooter who projects as a decent shot-creator at the next level but who won’t make much of an impact as a playmaker, rebounder or defender. He’ll be a much more valuable NBA player because of his size, but his ceiling is Danny Granger, not Kevin Durant. And instead of being almost a lock for the top-5 in 2011, there’s a good chance he falls to the latter stages of the lottery in 2012.

The Real Problem With Texas Basketball

At SB Nation Dallas, a look at why the Texas basketball program has hit its ceiling:

The Longhorns have made the NCAA Tournament 14 straight times under coach Rick Barnes, but every time they seem to be poised for a real chance at contending for a national championship, they're hit by a wave of defections to the NBA.

No one begrudges lottery picks like LaMarcus Aldridge, Kevin Durant and DJ Augustin for declaring early, but when underclassmen leave only to become late first-round or second-round picks it stings. In the last five years, there was Daniel Gibson and PJ Tucker (2006), Avery Bradley (2010), Cory Joseph and Jordan Hamilton (2011).

However, on closer inspection, what first seems like bad luck is actually a systemic flaw in how Rick Barnes' program works.

A McDonald's All-American who wants to enjoy the college experience isn't coming to Austin. Not when he can go to a place like Kansas, Duke, Kentucky or North Carolina where college basketball is part of the lifeblood of the university.

The Sweet 16: As Wide Open As Ever

 

At RealGM, a look at why Kendall Marshall's injury has cleared the field in the NCAA Tournament:

Before the NCAA Tournament began, I thought two teams -- Kentucky and UNC -- had separated themselves from the rest of the field. Now, after a wild opening weekend where two No. 1 seeds (UNC and Syracuse) suffered devastating personnel losses, two No. 2 seeds (Duke and Missouri) were knocked out in the first round and two No. 3 seeds (Florida State and Georgetown) lost in the second, the field is as wide open as ever. 

And with Kendall Marshall likely out for the Tournament with a wrist injury, there are no other giants looming in the other three regionals. UNC has now lost three scholarship perimeter players to injury this year, with little-used freshmen Stillman White the only scholarship PG still on the roster. Their more realistic option is sliding the 6’5 PJ Hairston into the starting line-up and attempting to swarm teams defensively with their length and athleticism; either way, it’s never good when a team has to dramatically change their identity in the middle of the Tournament.  

With the exception of Ohio, this year’s Cinderella, none of the other eight teams in the Midwest, East and West Regionals would be overmatched in a match-up with their respective No. 1 seeds. As a result, prognosticating the Sweet 16 is almost hopeless. Even if you look past No. 2 seeds Kansas and Ohio State and No. 3 seed Marquette, all of whom survived tough second round challenges, you can come up with legitimate cases for teams up and down the seed line to eventually advance to New Orleans.

Sweet 16 Thoughts And Observations

At BarkingCarnival, a grab-bag of random thoughts about one of the wildest first weekends in NCAA Tournament history:

1) There's Kentucky ... and there's everyone else. 

Before the Tournament started, it was Kentucky, UNC and everyone else. Now, with Kendall Marshall injuring his wrist as well as Fab Melo's suspension, every team still alive in East, West and Midwest (with the exception of Ohio) has good reason to feel like they can make a run to the Final Four. 

2) Royce White had one of the greatest three-minute stretches I've ever seen. 

In the span of four minutes at the start of the second half, Iowa State's 6'8 270 (not a typo) point forward went coast to coast and dunked on Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, bull dozed Terrence Jones on the low block for an easy and-1 and then took the ball from Anthony Davis to start a fast break he finished by finding a trailing shooter. His swag was so high CBS had to cut away from him cussing out Kentucky's trio of lottery picks on the front-line before commercial. Of course, the Wildcats went on a 34-10 run afterwards. Shades of Blake Griffin vs. UNC in 2009. 

3) Duke lost to a bunch of guys going pro in something other than sports. 

I really appreciate people pointing out how big a loss Ryan Kelly was for the Blue Devils. You know there's only so far a team can go with 7, and not 8, McDonald's All-Americans in their line-up. 

Side note -- what have the Plumlees been doing in the off-season? How can a bunch of skilled 6'10+ athletes have zero semblance of a legitimate low post game? As someone who played post in high school, I'm baffled that more D1 guys don't have a drop step and a hook shot. It isn't that difficult.

The Value Of Late First Rounders In 2012

 

At RealGM, a look at why NBA teams are valuing 2012 first round picks so highly:

In a league that typically scoffs at the value of these picks, which have usually been available for $3 million in cash, it’s fair to wonder what these teams are thinking. However, two things, both the result of the lockout, are different in 2012: the heightened luxury tax penalties in the new CBA have increased the value of first-rounders’ cost-controlled salaries while the uncertainty surrounding the 2011-12 season helped keep many of college basketball’s top players in school an extra season. 

History tells us that the odds are against late first-round picks ever becoming effective NBA contributors, but sometimes the most important part of gathering data is knowing when to ignore it. By their actions at the trade deadline, NBA teams seem to think 2012 first-round picks are three times as valuable as in previous years, and if you look at Draft Express’ current mock draft, that seems about right. 

While I expect several of these players to return to school in an effort to be boost their stock for 2013, the level of talent possibly available at picks #20-30 is jaw-dropping. From top to bottom, with the exception of the Toronto Raptors’ Jonas Valanciunas, I’d take the late first-round of 2012 over picks #4-14 in 2011.

Top 10 NBA Prospects In The East Regional

At SB Nation, a look at the Top 10 NBA Prospects in the East Regional and why it could be Dion Waiters' time to shine:

1. Dion Waiters, Syracuse 

2. Myck Kabongo, Texas 

3. Jeffery Taylor, Vanderbilt 

4. Festus Ezeli, Vanderbilt 

5. Jared Sullinger, Ohio State 

6. Sam Dower, Gonzaga 

7. Kevin Jones, West VA 

8. Xavier Gibson, Florida State 

9. William Buford, Ohio State 

10. Andrew Nicholson, St. Bonaventure 

Under-the-radar prospect: Robert Sacre, Gonzaga

Dwight Howard And The Court Of Public Opinion

At RealGM, a look at Dwight Howard's biggest mistake during "the Indecision":

Dwight Howard made one crucial mistake during the process that is already being called “The Indecision”: he was worried about how the public at large would perceive him. 

As is often the case when superstar athletes near free agency, people feel no problem injecting their own values into an intensely personal decision about where someone they don’t know lives and works. Media members, most of whom would jump to a new job at a new company in a new city for the slightest hint of a raise, patronizingly warn players of all they have to lose by going to a better operated franchise in a bigger city. 

They are always reminded of how much they owe the fans, as if superstars like LeBron James and Dwight Howard didn’t work for below market wages the first five years of their careers for teams they never chose to play for. Yet the converse, that fans owe the players something, is never assumed to be true.

Top 10 NBA Prospects In The West Regional

 

At SB Nation, a look at the top 10 NBA prospects in the West Regional, the most wide-open bracket in the Tournament:

1. Will Barton, Memphis 

2. Bradley Beal, Florida 

3. Adreian Payne, Michigan State 

4. Patric Young, Florida 

5. Drew Gordon, New Mexico 

6. Phil Pressey, Missouri 

7. Kim English, Missouri 

8. Kenny Boynton, Florida 

9. Draymond Green, Michigan State 

10. Marcus Denmon, Missouri 

Under-the-radar prospect: Isaiah Canaan, Murray State

Book Review: "Sex, Bombs And Burgers"

At PopMatters, a review of Peter Nowak's "Sex, Bombs And Burgers":

Peter Nowak’s book Sex, Bombs And Burgers: How War, Pornography And Fast Food Have Shaped Modern Technology has an interesting title. It’s all downhill from there. 

The problem starts with Nowak’s writing style, which is more appropriate for an AP news brief than a 335-page book. A long-time newspaper veteran, he writes in the bland, neutral voice of an objective observer. It’s a good way to cover a city hall meeting, but it doesn’t engage the reader in the way a non-fiction book aimed at the popular audience should. 

Throughout, he writes from the perspective of an innocent, marveling at the wonders of modern technology. Like a diligent middle-schooler writing a book report, he repeatedly hammers home his thesis without delving into its deeper implications. 

NCAA Tournament 2012: All Roads Go Through Kentucky, UNC

At RealGM, a look at why UNC and Kentucky are the teams to beat heading into the Tournament:

When Kentucky played UNC in a non-conference game on Dec. 2, it was widely seen as the game of the year. There was a razor thin difference between the two teams, both stocked with former McDonald’s All-Americans and future first-round picks, with the Wildcats prevailing in a 73-72 shootout that wasn’t decided until the game’s final moments. 

Four months and hundreds of news cycles later, nothing has really changed. While both lost in their respective conference tournaments on Sunday, they still received No. 1 seeds on opposite sides of the bracket, setting up what would be one of the most anticipated rematches in college basketball history in the NCAA championship game. 

Of course, in a one-and-done tournament with 40-minute games, a short three-point line and a foul limit of only five, anything can happen. But if either the Wildcats or the Tar Heels lose before the Final Four, it will be the biggest upset of March. They are the two best teams in the country, and all roads to an NCAA title go through either John Calipari or Roy Williams.

Top 10 NBA Prospects In The South Regional

 

At SB Nation, a look at the Top 10 prospects in the South Regional of the NCAA Tournament:

1. Anthony Davis, Kentucky 

2. Andre Drummond, UConn 

3. Perry Jones III, Baylor 

4. Quincy Miller, Baylor 

5. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Kentucky 

6. Cody Zeller, Indiana 

7. Jeremy Lamb, UConn 

8. Terrence Jones, Kentucky 

9. Doron Lamb, Kentucky 

10. Austin Rivers, Duke 

Under the radar: Royce White, Iowa State

The Variety And Unpredictability of March Madness

 

At RealGM, a look at what makes March Madness unique and as compelling as the NBA:

In the NBA, the owners of the 30 franchises consider turning a profit and getting an equal shot at the top players a right, regardless of how well (or how poorly) they run their organization and the respective size of their fan-bases. Since every losing team is a few ping pong balls from the rights to a LeBron James, Kevin Durant or Dwight Howard, personnel determines scheme in the NBA. 

In contrast, the vast majority of the 344 Division I programs in college basketball have little chance of ever receiving a commitment from a McDonald’s All-American. But instead of petulantly trying to sabotage the sportin a misguided effort to legislate fairness, schools try many creative ways of leveraging the talents of the players they can recruit. As a result, scheme determines personnel in the NCAA. 

So while nearly every NBA team runs a fairly similar system of isolations, pick-and-rolls and man defense, an incredibly diverse array of styles can be found in the college game. On one end of the spectrum, teams like Missouri play four guards and pressure the ball 94 feet for 48 minutes, on the other, teams like Wisconsin run a deliberate motion offense, trying to minimize the number of possessions and shoot at the very end of the shot-clock.

Jimmer Fredette's Struggles And Evaluating College Prospects

At RealGM, a look at why Jimmer Fredette's struggles in the NBA shouldn't be surprising:

Despite his lofty draft status, Fredette’s struggles in the NBA aren’t that surprising. More broadly, they illustrate a common mistake in how college prospects are evaluated: the ability to score a lot of points, even for a Top 10-15 team, doesn’t necessarily translate to the next level. Conversely, there are many collegiate role players who will have better pro careers than All-Americans like Fredette. 

BYU provided the perfect situation for Fredette: the Cougars built their entire offense around him, spreading the court with shooters and letting him isolate at the top of the key. In his senior season, he took a jaw-dropping 21 shots a game, meaning he was shooting once every two minutes. His ability to hit a vast array of difficult long-range shots was certainly entertaining, but creating a shot off the dribble is only one of five different skills an NBA player needs. 

With that in mind, the one player I would stay far away from is Ohio State’s Jared Sullinger. There’s no arguing with his collegiate production, but like Fredette, he’s not going to be valuable to a team if he isn’t dominating the ball. The Buckeyes’ offense is built around his low-post game, as Thad Matta surrounds him with shooters (DeShaun Thomas, William Buford, Aaron Craft, Lenzelle Smith Jr.) who make a concerted effort to pound him the ball inside.

SB Nation Dallas

I'm now the managing editor of SB Nation Dallas. We've got a deep crew of writers covering the Mavericks, Rangers, Stars, Cowboys, the NFL Draft and the Big 12. It's a site definitely worth checking out.

On Monday, Andy Tobo discussed why Lamar Odom's struggles in Dallas have been a bit overblown and aren't that all unexpected.

I took a comprehensive look at the NCAA Tournament bubble and where Texas stands on the eve of the Big 12 Tournament.

The Big 12's NBA Prospects And The Draft Dilemma

At SB Nation, a look at the NBA prospects on Oklahoma State, Texas and Missouri and why staying in school is often harder than it seems:

Kim English -- Raja Bell (best case) / DeShawn Stevenson (worst case) 

Phil Pressey -- DJ Augustin / JJ Barea 

Marcus Denmon -- Toney Douglas / Bracey Wright 

J'Covan Brown -- Jannero Pargo / Jacob Pullen 

Ricardo Ratliffe -- Craig Smith / Alexander Johnson 

Down-the-road possibilities: LeBryan Nash, Myck Kabongo, Markel Brown, Michael Cobbins, Michael Dixon, Sheldon McClellan, Philip Jurich, Jonathan Holmes

Miami Heat: The Kentucky Of The NBA

At RealGM, a look at how Kentucky and Miami have dominated their respective regular seasons this year:

While there’s been a lot made about the Miami Heat’s adoption of a “pace and space” philosophy and its resemblance to Oregon football coach Chip Kelly’s spread offense, the real analogy for what Miami does in the college game comes on the hardwood. The Heat are the Kentucky Wildcats of the NBA: a team full of elite athletes who take great pride in their defense and can physically overwhelm the vast majority of their opponents. 

Like Kentucky, they shrink the floor defensively with Bosh (7’4 wingspan), LeBron (7’0) and Wade (6’11). All three can fly around the floor, leaving very little airspace in the lane for opposing players to operate. An NBA team shouldn’t be able to blitz a pick-and-roll and recover quickly enough to leave no room for shooters like the Heat can. In a 102-88 demolition of the New York Knicks before the All-Star Game, Miami’s swarming defense brought Jeremy Lin down to earth, forcing eight turnovers and holding him to a 1-for-11 mark from the field. 

Miami, like Kentucky, is a team built to generate turnovers, because just as a college frontline has no chance of keeping up with Anthony Davis, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Jones in the open court, NBA teams have no answer when LeBron and Wade get a head of steam going at the basket. At 6’9, 260+, LeBron can make even elite defenses look utterly helpless in transition.