Portland's Draft Plan

At RealGM, a look at why the Portland Trail Blazers were the other big winners from the NBA draft lottery:

While the New Orleans Hornets, who are now well on their way to an Oklahoma City-like rebuild, were the biggest winners from Wednesday night, the Portland Trail Blazers weren’t far behind them. Thanks to some short-sighted decision-making from the New Jersey Nets, who essentially dealt a No. 6 pick for a half-season of Gerald Wallace, Portland can rapidly accelerate their rebuilding process with two lottery picks in one of the deepest drafts in the last decade.

The Trail Blazers decision-making process should be made easier by the two excellent building blocks they still have on their roster: LaMarcus Aldridge and Nicolas Batum. Aldridge, the most complete big man in the NBA, is an athletic two-way forward at 6’11, 240 still only 26-years-old. Batum, an athletic 6’8 200 swingman with a good three-point shot, is 23.

At the same time, holding on to their picks wouldn’t be a bad option either. With long-term starters at the power forward and small forward already in the fold, Portland could find the answer at two more positions in the draft. Like the Utah Jazz before them, the Trail Blazers could take advantage of New Jersey’s impatience to create a deep young core with the potential to be a title contender.

LeBron's Heavy Minutes

At RealGM, a look at how LeBron's ability to play without rest is affecting the Eastern Conference Finals:

The most impressive Game 1 stat from LeBron James wasn’t his 32 points, 13 rebounds, 3 assists or 3 blocks, and it wasn’t his customarily efficient 13-for-22 shooting line. Somehow, even though Miami’s starters were pulled with two minutes left in the fourth quarter, LeBron still played 44 minutes.

As a result, the Miami Heat never let up the pressure on an opponent’s back-line. With either Dwyane Wade or LeBron is on the floor for all 48 minutes, having a shot-blocker on both your first and second units is almost a necessity.

It’s a huge problem for an undersized Boston Celtics team that only plays one conventional big man (Kevin Garnett). Without Garnett in the game, the Eastern Conference Finals is a conga line at the front of the rim for Miami. Doc Rivers could only take him out for two-minute stretches in the second half, with Boston -3 in the third quarter and -2 in the fourth without him.

WCF Preview And The Myth Of Momentum

At RealGM, a preview of the Western Conference Finals and why the Spurs recent hot streak doesn't mean all that much:

In the NBA playoffs, momentum is fairly ephemeral. A large portion of a player’s performance depends on who they are defending and who is defending them; how they played against a different opponent the week before only has so much predictive value.

Against either Sefolosha or Westbrook, Parker won’t have his typical athletic advantage on his initial perimeter defender. As a result, San Antonio will probably run a lot of pick-and-rolls to free up Parker and test Oklahoma City’s defensive rotations. In many ways, the veteran Spurs, with skilled shooters and passers at nearly every position of the floor, represent the ultimate test for a Thunder team that too often uses their athletic advantage to cut corners defensively.

On the other end of the floor, Oklahoma City’s perimeter athleticism will test San Antonio’s team defense in ways that the Clippers or the Jazz could not. The Thunder have three different players (Westbrook, Harden and Kevin Durant) who can get to the front of the rim, and Tim Duncan doesn’t have the quickness to challenge and recover to his man like he once did.

Philadelphia's Biggest Mistake

At RealGM, a look at why the 76ers are haunted by a draft-day mistake from two years ago:

Even if the Philadelphia 76ers are able to win a road Game 7 in their second-round series against the Boston Celtics, they would be a huge underdog against either the Miami Heat or the Indiana Pacers in the Eastern Conference Finals. Going from “good” to “great” is the hardest jump to make in the NBA and the 76ers don’t have the personnel to do it.

Their problems start up front: in a league where size is everything, they don’t have a big man who can create his own shot or play above the rim defensively. With an excellent trio of perimeter players in Jrue Holiday, Lou Williams and Andre Iguodala, the 76ers are one elite 6’10+ big man away from being relevant. However, those are the toughest players to find in the NBA, which is why the decisions they made in the 2010 draft still loom over the franchise.

If they had taken DeMarcus Cousins, Greg Monroe or Derrick Favors, they would have changed the entire trajectory of their franchise. Now, they seem doomed to follow in the path of the Atlanta Hawks, another perennial playoff team crippled by a disastrous draft miss at No. 2 overall (Marvin Williams over Chris Paul and Deron Williams).

Kobe's Choice

At RealGM, a look at where the Lakers go from here after their latest second-round defeat:

After disappointing fourth quarter performances in Games 2 and 4, Kobe came into Game 5 on a mission. He was dialed in on every possession, fighting for offensive position on the low block and repeatedly taking the ball to the rim. He did everything in his power to will his team to victory, but it wasn’t even close to enough.

At the age of 33, with over 1,300 NBA regular season and playoff games under his belt, there’s only so much he can do on the court. Bryant scored 42 points in Game 5, but he needed 33 shots to do it. Even more revealing were the rest of his numbers: 5 rebounds, 0 assists and 2 turnovers. That’s what happens when a volume scorer who can’t impact the paint on either side of the ball tries to take over a playoff game.

But while Michael Jordan’s six championships are still in range, they aren’t the only mark Kobe, a consummate student of the game, is chasing. He is 9,000 points behind Kareem Abdul-Jabbar on the all-time scoring list, which would be four more seasons at 25 points a game. But with his shooting percentages continuing to slip, the number of shots he would need to reach that mark would doom the Lakers to four more years of first and second-round exits, regardless of what other pieces they might acquire.

The San Antonio Spurs And The Passage Of Time

At RealGM, a look at why this version of the Spurs is different from their previous title winners, despite the faces being the same:

A lot has happened to Stephen Jackson since he left the San Antonio Spurs after the 2003 season. He was Public Enemy No. 1 after the “Malice in the Palace” before reinventing himself as “Captain Jack” for the “We Believe” Warriors and being on the scene for the first playoff appearance in the history of the Charlotte Bobcats. 

Yet when he came back to San Antonio in 2012, it was as if nothing had ever changed. Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili were still playing and Gregg Popovich was still roaming the sidelines. Over the last decade, the Spurs have seemingly existed outside of time, an unchanging rock amidst the constant stream of player movement and coaching changes that is the modern NBA. 

But while the faces have stayed the same, the bodies underneath them have not. Duncan, Ginobili and Parker have each put over 750 NBA regular season, international and playoff games on their knees. And while they used to win with suffocating defense, age has forced them to become a jump-shooting team that depends on ball movement and superior offensive execution to win.

Miami Without Chris Bosh

At RealGM, a look at how Chris Bosh's absence affects the Miami Heat and increases the pressure on their two stars:

Bosh, who shoots 41% from outside of the paint, is the only one of the Heat’s big men whom other teams have to respect from the perimeter. Joel Anthony (35%) and Ronny Turiaf (27%) are extremely limited offensively, while Udonis Haslem (36%) is wearing down as he enters his early thirties.

When Bosh isn’t on the floor, defenses can run a de-facto zone and station both of their big men in the paint. There aren’t many two-way 6’11+ forwards in the NBA who can challenge defenses out to 20+ feet; that’s what Erik Spoelstra means when he says that Bosh is the Heat’s "most irreplaceable" player.

Without him, the Heat’s conventional line-ups don’t have enough perimeter shooting. In Game 2, line-ups which featured any combination of Anthony, Haslem and Turiaf on the floor were a combined -12. When either Wade or LeBron had the ball, there would be three non-shooters surrounding them, and the lack of floor spacing killed Miami.

Second Round Playoff Preview

At RealGM, a look at why the second round of the playoffs may not be very competitive:

In the NBA, the gap between “bad” and “good” isn’t nearly as wide as the one between “good” and “great”. Building a good NBA team isn’t all that difficult: 27 of the league’s 30 franchises have made the playoffs in the last five seasons. But while getting in is easy, advancing is not.

Very rarely do teams reach the Conference Finals without being great on one side of the ball. Great offenses are built around at least one All-NBA caliber scorer who can command a double team, while great defenses are built around at least one big man who can protect the rim at a high level.

The second round is typically the ceiling for teams without either type of player: the Joe Johnson/Josh Smith Atlanta Hawks have won three first-round playoff series, but have gone only 2-12 in the second. While Atlanta lost in the first-round this season, there should be a similar winnowing process in 2012, as the NBA’s top teams separate themselves from the pack.

The Lakers Floor Spacing Problem

At RealGM, a look at how the Laker role players inability to shoot has hurt them in the playoffs:

However, while their salaries and media profile make them the natural scapegoats, the Lakers problems in this series aren’t the holes in their best players’ games. Their other perimeter players have not been able to knock down open jumpers, and there isn’t anything Bryant, Gasol, Bynum or Mike Brown can do about it.

Floor spacing is essential to an effective offense: the more spread out a defense is, the harder it is for them to send help when an offensive player beats his man. The NBA’s best offensive players can consistently beat an individual defender to create a good look at the basket, but not even Shaquille O'Neal could consistently beat double teams, which is why the Lakers played so many shooters (Robert Horry, Rick Fox, Derek Fisher) next to him.

In contrast, none of their current role players have been able to make the Nuggets pay for leaving them wide open from the perimeter. Ramon Sessions, a point guard more suited for an uptempo pick-and-roll offense, has shot 23% from three in the playoffs. Matt Barnes is at 12% while Devin Ebanks has yet to make a single three-pointer. Steve Blake, who has never been known as a lights-out shooter, has been the team's only three-point threat in the series at 37%.

NBA Draft Sleepers

At SB Nation, a look at some under-the-radar prospects in the 2012 NBA Draft who could become excellent NBA role players:

The vast majority of first-round picks have to make the transition from dominating the ball as college stars to playing off the ball at the next level, which requires two vastly different skill sets. Jimmer Fredette's shot-making skills made him better suited to being a collegiate star than Shumpert, but Shumpert's length and athleticism have made him a much better NBA role player than Fredette. 

In general, NBA teams tend to overrate the importance of team success when it comes to judging the merits of individual collegiate players. That goes double when it comes to role players, as there's only so much a player who affects the game off the ball can do to carry his team in the NCAA Tournament.

So when looking for value in the draft, it's important to look beyond the top scorers on Sweet 16 teams and judge the entirety of a player's game, especially for players on underachieving squads like Shumpert. At this time last year, I pegged Shumpert, Klay Thompson, Jordan Williams, Reggie Jackson, Isaiah Thomas and Darius Morris as possible sleepers.

Javale McGee's Time To Shine

At RealGM, a look at Javale McGee's impressive first-round series against the LA Lakers:

Over the last few seasons, JaVale McGee has emerged as one of the most exciting young players in the NBA. A 7’0, 250 center who thinks he is a point guard, McGee’s boundless enthusiasm, irrational confidence and dubious understanding of some of basketball’s most basic rules have made him a YouTube star.

However, now that he has been removed from the dysfunctional Washington Wizards' locker room and placed in a more professional environment with the Nuggets, his talent is starting to shine through. And after yet another dominant performance against the Lakers’ massive front-line in Game 5, McGee will be one of the most intriguing free agents in the NBA this summer.

Andrew Bynum (7’5 wingspan) and Pau Gasol (7’4 wingspan) are the longest frontcourt tandem in the league, and their length can absolutely suffocate opponents. McGee, with a 7’6 wingspan, 9’6 standing reach and max vertical of over 30’, is one of the only players in the NBA who can consistently score over the top of the Laker big men.

Where The Mavericks Go From Here

At RealGM, a look at the next step for the Dallas Mavericks after their early playoff exit:

Now, with only six players under contract headed into the summer of 2012, Dallas may have a drastically different roster surrounding Dirk Nowitzki next fall. The Mavericks' lack of sentimentality as an organization has allowed them to remain relevant for well over a decade, as 2012 will be the third time the franchise has rebuilt the roster around Nowitzki.

They have a blank slate to build around Nowitzki, but for the first time since he’s been in Dallas, it’s no longer clear he’s worth being built around. He had his worst statistical season since 2000, shooting 45.7% from the floor and grabbing only 7.4 rebounds a game. While a lot of that has to do with a bizarre lockout-compressed season that was brutal on the legs of the NBA’s veterans, championship teams aren’t generally built around players entering their 15th season in the NBA.

Nowitzki’s two contemporaries at the power forward position, Tim Duncan and Kevin Garnett, have long since ceded control of the offense to an All-Star point guard. That, of course, is where Deron Williams comes in, as the New Jersey Nets' point guard is the main prize available in free agency.

Top 10 Players Coming Back To School

At SB Nation, a look at the Top 10 NBA prospects headed back to school for the 2012-2013 season:

This season, with no threat of a lockout, the blue bloods were decimated by NBA defections. As a result, many of the top NBA prospects returning to school for the 2012-2013 season are from schools off the beaten path, setting up what could be an extremely wide-open NCAA Tournament in 2013.

1. Cody Zeller, Indiana

Who he is: The youngest brother of the Zeller clan, Cody has more potential than either Luke (Notre Dame) or Tyler (UNC). At 6'11, 230 pounds, he's the most solidly built of the three, which enables him to establish deep post position on the low block. A fundamentally sound player with the physical tools to be a top-line NBA center, he got Anthony Davis in foul trouble in both of their meetings last season. As a freshman, he averaged 15.6 points and 6.6 rebounds on 62.3 percent shooting.

What he needs to improve: He'll still need to put on weight to operate in the paint on the next level, so 10-15 pounds of muscle would go a long way. As a sophomore with a lot of talent around him, he'll be expected to have a 20/10 first-team All-America season.

Rick Carlisle's Poor Coaching Decisions

At SB Nation Dallas, a look at how Rick Carlisle's stubbornness cost the Mavericks against the Thunder:

Carlisle stuck with his veterans to the bitter end, going all-in with a Game 4 starting lineup that featured Jason Terry, Jason Kidd and Brendan Haywood despite the trio's underwhelming performance through the first three games.

And while Haywood took up space for over half the game, Ian Mahinmi and Brandan Wright remained chained to the bench. In 13 minutes, Mahinmi had more points, rebounds and blocks than Haywood had in twice that much time. Wright, meanwhile, is the team's longest and most athletic center, with a block percentage (6.4%) nearly double than anyone else on the roster.

In his post-game press conference, Carlisle claimed he tried everything in the fourth quarter, when the Mavericks were outscored 35-16. Somehow, it never occurred to him to play the team's best shot-blocker as Oklahoma City ran a train at the rim.

LeBron James, Kentucky And The AAU Revolution

At SB Nation, a long form piece on what the success of the Miami Heat and Kentucky Wildcats this year tells us about the future of the NBA:

LeBron was blindsided by the public outrage over "The Decision" because he had been teaming up with his biggest competitors his whole life. The closest comparison to the Miami Heat, who have the best shooting guard, small forward and power forward from the draft class of 2003, comes not from the NBA's past but its future. It's John Calipari's Kentucky Wildcats, who rode the best center and small forward from the class of 2011 and the best power forward from the class of 2010 to an NCAA championship in 2012.

The Memphis Grizzlies And The Matchup Game

At RealGM, a look at the importance of matchups in an NBA playoff series and what it says about the Memphis Grizzlies:

In an NBA playoff series, each coaching staff searches for matchup advantages. If one has the personnel to attack a weak defender at a position, it forces the other to scramble their defense and leave someone open by sending a double team. At the same time, an inferior shooter on the perimeter or a big man who can’t finish in the paint can be doubled off of with impunity, ruining floor spacing and making it difficult to score.

Against the Memphis Grizzlies, however, there aren’t any matchup advantages to find. At every position on the floor, Memphis has at least one player who can create their own shot, defend and shoot. While they don’t have a transcendent superstar, they have the personnel to exploit teams who surround their All-NBA players with one dimensional players.

Most importantly, they have a huge size advantage against nearly every other team in the league. That’s what separates the Grizzlies from other superstar-less teams like the Nuggets and the 76ers who have very little chance of making a deep run in the playoffs. Memphis is a legitimate title contender, as they have the personnel to attack the weak spots on every team in the Western Conference, particularly on the front-line.

Kevin Garnett Vs. Josh Smith: The Lion In Winter

At RealGM, a look at the changing of the guard at the power forward position out East:

Garnett, along with Tim Duncan and Dirk Nowitzki, revolutionized the power forward position. Despite being 7’0, he preferred to play on the perimeter, where his quickness made him a defensive terror and his high release point made his shot unblockable. Even in his 17th season, he remains an incredibly productive player, posting a 20.4 PER while handling the interior defense for a Boston Celtics team with no other player taller than 6’8 in the starting lineup.

Boston’s lack of size leaves Garnett as the best matchup for Josh Smith in their first-round series against the Atlanta Hawks. Smith, an athletic 6’9, 225 combo forward, is a textbook example of the type of multi-dimensional big man who have followed in Garnett’s footsteps. And for all Garnett’s wisdom and savvy, he no longer has the foot-speed or the explosiveness to handle Smith one-on-one, which is one of the main reasons why Atlanta will win the series.

After playing at small forward earlier in his career, Smith has thrived closer to the basket, especially in the high post, where his vision and foot-speed make him extremely dangerous. On an Atlanta team with a lot of good players but no great ones, it’s been easy to overlook just how good he has become.