Friday, June 29, 2012

2012 NBA Draft: Top 10 Undrafted Free Agents

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At SB Nation, a look at the Top 10 UDFA's from the 2012 NBA Draft:
Last year, an undrafted free agent point guard from Harvard became the biggest story in sports for almost a month. And while very few undrafted free agents ever get the chance Jeremy Lin got in New York, a few do end up sticking on NBA rosters every year.

For players like Marquis Daniels, Wesley Matthews and Raja Bell, the difference between making the league and playing overseas can come down to being at the right place at the right time. In a way, then, being undrafted can be a blessing in disguise, especially compared to players taken in the 50's who show up to camp competing against a full roster.

1. Scott Machado 2. Drew Gordon 3. Kevin Jones 4. Henry Sims 5. William Buford 6. Terrell Stoglin 7. Hollis Thompson 8. JaMychal Green 9. Wesley Witherspoon

Baylor's Bittersweet Night

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At SB Nation Dallas, a look at why having three players drafted wasn't necessarily great news for Baylor:
However, thanks to the influence of AAU basketball, recruits are wiser to the game and the nature of the beast these days. Success in the NCAA Tournament doesn't attract players; success in the NBA Draft does. And by those standards, Baylor's season was an absolute failure.

At a certain point towards the end of the first round, it became uncomfortable how far Perry Jones III was plummeting. Jones is one of the five most talented players in the draft; it's pretty insulting for a guy like that to be passed over for stiffs like Miles Plumlee. ESPN's analysts, trying to be sympathetic, only made things worse with backhanded compliments about Jones "being a good kid".

Being a coach is like being a doctor, the first rule is "do no harm". And after two years under Scott Drew, an athletic and coordinated 6'11 235 big man with a 7'2 wingspan was selected No. 28 overall. Given the scarcity of big men in the modern NBA, a player like that should be a lottery pick just by rolling out of bed. Drew couldn't have done a better job of tanking Jones' draft position if he had tried.

2012 NBA Draft: Winners And Losers

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At Barking Carnival, a look at the three different approaches to the draft NBA teams take:
In my mind, there were maybe 4-5 guys (Kyrie Irving and a few international big men) with elite talent in last year's draft. This year, I thought there were probably 15-20.

And while the plentiful amount of talent available should have made the jobs of NBA GM's easier, it also magnified the costs of their (many, many) mistakes. There are quite a few which don't seem to take the draft very seriously, which is pretty crazy since it's such an affordable way to upgrade a team's overall talent level. Some years, you're leaving $5 dollar bills on the ground; other years, $100.

At the same time, there's no point in doling out grades to 30 GM's taking different tests. You can divide them into three categories: rebuilding teams trying to add core players, reloading ones trying to upgrade around an existing core and contending ones trying to tweak minor roles around a successful core.

Wednesday, June 27, 2012

2012 NBA Draft: Top 10 C's

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At SB Nation, a look at the top centers in the 2012 draft and why their development will depend on who selects them:
As a rule, big men develop slower than guards. The 2012 NBA Draft is no exception, as the top two prospects at the center position, Andre Drummond and Meyers Leonard, are nowhere near their ceiling. But while their development could determine the future of the franchise that drafts them, the identity of the franchise that drafts them could also determine how much they develop.

This is why the draft is usually not a panacea for the league's worst franchises: very few players come into the league fully developed and poorly run teams are going to have a much harder time developing the talent they have on hand.

1. Andre Drummond 2. Meyers Leonard 3. Festus Ezeli 4. Tyler Zeller 5. Fab Melo 6. Robert Sacre 7. Bernard James 8. Reggie Johnson 9. Xavier Gibson 10. Renardo Sidney

Judging Character On A Basketball Court

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At RealGM, a look at why many of the criticisms Baylor star Perry Jones III has received are so unfair:
As it turns out, the biggest difference between his performance in the 2011 and 2012 Finals wasn’t LeBron’s “killer instinct” but his “post game”. When a player isn’t performing up to his capabilities, it’s easy to point the finger at his character and whether he “wants to win”. In reality, the reason usually has more to do with what’s happening on the court than in the psyche.

In the 2012 NBA Draft, Baylor sophomore Perry Jones III has received the brunt of criticism from the armchair psychologists in the basketball community. An incredibly athletic 6’11, 235 forward with a 7’2 wingspan, Jones has one of the best combinations of size, skill and athleticism to come into the NBA in a long time.
I’ve never met Perry Jones, but I’ve watched him play a lot of basketball. And when there are tactical and strategic reasons for why a player isn’t maximizing his potential, I’m going to look at those before I start questioning his ability to succeed at a children’s game because of who he is as a human being.

Who Should The Mavericks Pick At No. 17?

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At SB Nation Dallas, the third of a four-part pre-draft conversation looks at which players the Mavericks should hope fall to them:
However, the position I'll be watching closest is shooting guard. It's been a need in Dallas since Michael Finley left town, and this is the best crop of 2 guards to enter the league in a very long time. As you mentioned, Bradley Beal has received most of the hype, but the player I'm hoping slips to 17 is Terrence Ross. He's got legitimate All-Star talent; he just slipped under the radar playing on a Washington team hamstrung by poor play from their PG position.

To me, the fall-back at the position is Will Barton (Memphis). He's crazy skinny (6'6 175) but he's super-long, athletic and he did everything for the Tigers last year -- scoring, passing, defending, rebounding and shooting. He improved his jumper by leaps and bounds from his freshman year, and if he can keep hitting from deep, he's going to be a very good player in the NBA for a long time.

I know, by most of the mocks out there, that Barton would be considered a "reach" at 17, but the draft consensus, as you mentioned, is as much a product of groupthink as opposed to actually evaluating the talent on hand. I was talking to one of the "bigger" names on the sports blogosphere about Barton and he just kind of briskly brushed him as an "AAU player". First off, what does that even mean considering 99% of top American prospects learned the game in the AAU circuit? It's just the kind of thing people say when they don't actually want to take the time to watch the games.

Tuesday, June 26, 2012

2012 NBA Draft: Top 10 PF's

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At SB Nation, a look at the Top 10 PF's in the 2012 NBA Draft and how they represent the next step in the evolution of the game:
However, change goes two ways, and as 6'9+ players moved away from the basket on offense, their defensive counterparts have begun to do the same. If offensive players no longer want to play in the low post, why bulk up to 240-250 pounds? Why not stay as lean as possible in order to emphasize lateral quickness?

The 2012 draft class, which features three 6'10+ forwards capable of defending out to the three-point line, represents the next step in the evolution of the game. Power forward is the deepest position in the draft, and it features a wide variety of players and playing styles. Anthony Davis was a center at Kentucky while Perry Jones III has tried to convince teams he's a small forward in pre-draft workouts.

1. Anthony Davis 2. Perry Jones III 3. John Henson 4. Royce White 5. Terrence Jones 6. Thomas Robinson 7. Arnett Moultrie 8. Drew Gordon 9. Jared Sullinger 10. Kevin Jones

Monday, June 25, 2012

2012 NBA Draft: Top 10 SF's

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At SB Nation, a look at the Top 10 SF's in the 2012 draft and what Evan Turner's failures fan tell us about this year's crop:
While he is an excellent rebounder and passer for a wing player, he's an average athlete with a subpar perimeter shot. Without the ability to space the floor, he's only effective with the ball in his hands, but he's not a dynamic enough athlete to be a primary offensive option or a defensive difference-maker in the NBA.

If we put the top small forwards in the 2012 draft under a similar microscope, UNC's Harrison Barnes comes up short. Many mock drafts have the Cleveland Cavaliers taking Barnes with the No. 4 overall pick, but he's only the fourth best small forward in this draft in my mind.
1. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist 2. Quincy Miller 3. Jeffrey Taylor 4. Harrison Barnes 5. Moe Harkless 6. Khris Middleton 7. Orlando Johnson 8. Darius Miller 9. Hollis Thompson 10. Tony Mitchell

Is Anthony Davis Overrated?

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At SB Nation Dallas, a look at why Anthony Davis won't necessarily be the best player from this draft:
Kentucky was amazing last year and he had great defensive stats (10.4 rebounds, 4.7 blocks), but that team was a lot more than just Davis. That was a collegiate All-Star team: they brought the two best players back (I'm not a big Brandon Knight fan) from a Final Four team and then added three 5-star recruits in Davis, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Marquise Teague. The top 6 players in their rotation are all going to be drafted.

He's got a decent stroke (71% from the free-throw line), so maybe he could develop a face-up dribble-drive game, but he sure didn't show it with the Wildcats. For that matter, at 220 pounds, he's going to have a hard time surviving an NBA paint and boxing out opposing centers, which means he's going to have to adjust to playing away from the basket as a power forward.

There's just a lot we don't know about his game yet, and it's a little strange to me that everyone is just taking it on faith that he'll be able to answer all those questions. It's hard to dominate an NBA playoff game just on shot-blocking because the players are skilled enough to score efficiently from mid-range and deep. His ability to protect the rim and finish will give him a long and productive career at the next level, but isn't it entirely possible he maxes out at Marcus Camby?

Friday, June 22, 2012

The Shape Of Things To Come In The NBA

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At RealGM, a look at how Miami's championship has changed the shape of things to come in the NBA:
LeBron knew what he was saying two years ago. The amount of talent that's been assembled on South Beach is incredible: their top three players have made 23 of 27 possible All-Stars Games in their careers. And after two years of tinkering, the Heat's lineup finally clicked in the 2012 Finals, resulting in an offensive onslaught even an Oklahoma City Thunder team with three All-Star caliber-players of their own couldn't withstand.
That's why the biggest long-term threat to the fledgling dynasty in Miami has always been just a few miles up the road. Dwight Howard, an uber-athletic 6'11, 265 center and three-time Defensive Player of the Year, is the one player in the NBA who makes LeBron play in the shade. Now, at the lowest moment of his career, he must be pretty envious of his Hall of Fame counterpart across the state. Howard made the NBA Finals with a team whose best scorer was Hedo Turkoglu; imagine what he would do with Bosh and Wade or, for that matter, Westbrook and Harden.
The Heat were built on a practice court and not in a boardroom, and that is the real game-changer at the heart of this grand experiment on South Beach. Wade, LeBron and Bosh weren't brought together by the vagaries of ping-pong balls, reverse-order drafts and lopsided trades. They took control of their own destiny, decided to play together and looked for a franchise who would hand them the keys.

2012 NBA Draft: Top 10 SG's

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At SB Nation, a look at the Top 10 SG's in the 2012 NBA Draft, one of the deepest pools of talent at the position in years:
That's why the 2012 draft is such a needed breath of fresh air, as there are at least four shooting guards with the potential to become All-Star caliber players. And while most analysts have Bradley Beal well ahead of the pack, I don't think there's much separation between him, Terrence Ross, Jeremy Lamb and Dion Waiters.

All four have had stretches where they've been nearly indefensible at the college level, but the ability to run point and effectively distribute the ball is what separates Harden and Gordon from players like Smith, Young and Monta Ellis. Five years from now, the player who emerges as the top shooting guard from this draft will be the one who can create easy shots not just for himself -- but for his teammates too.

1. Terrence Ross 2. Jeremy Lamb 3. Bradley Beal 4. Dion Waiters 5. Will Barton 6. Doron Lamb 7. Austin Rivers 8. Evan Fournier 9. Kim English 10. Jared Cunningham

Thursday, June 21, 2012

2012 NBA Draft: Top 10 PG's

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At SB Nation, a look at the Top 10 PG's and why the fungibility of the position means none are worthy of a lottery pick:
The 2012 NBA Draft, scheduled for June 28, is an exception to the trend, as there are significant questions surrounding all of the best available PGs. They either excelled at a small school and were rarely tested by elite competition, or they benefited from playing with elite teammates at a big school.

That could be an issue for the lottery teams who need a young point guard, as I don't think there's one worthy of a lottery selection in this draft. After all, there's no reason to use a lottery pick on a solid NBA point guard when teams can find undrafted rookies from Harvard off waivers who can do the job just as well. 

1. Damian Lillard, 2. Scott Machado, 3. Kendall Marshall, 4. Tyshawn Taylor, 5. Tony Wroten Jr., 6. Marquise Teague, 7. Terrell Stoglin, 8. Marcus Denmon, 9. Jordan Taylor, 10. Tu Holloway

Wednesday, June 20, 2012

LeBron's Playmaking Ability

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At RealGM, a look at how LeBron's ability to make plays for his teammates from the low post has swung the NBA Finals:
Playmaking, more than even scoring or defense, is what makes LeBron special. At 6'9, 265, he has the athleticism of a shooting guard, the body of a power forward and the floor vision of a point guard. And on Tuesday night, he put it all together in a performance for the ages.
After Oklahoma City raced out to a 27-12 lead to start the game, he quarterbacked a lightning-fast comeback from the post. In four minutes, he created 14 points without scoring: finding Norris Cole for two 3 pointers, Wade on a breakaway and James Jones for a 3. It was beautifully efficient basketball: either LeBron would score in the paint or he would command a double team and create a wide open 3 pointer for a teammate. 

Playing on a team designed to maximize his abilities, LeBron made the right decision almost every single time down the floor. It was a scary view of what the next decade of the NBA could look like: LeBron rolling through the high post as a freakish hybrid of Magic Johnson, Karl Malone and Michael Jordan.

Monday, June 18, 2012

NBA Finals Coaching Strategies

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At RealGM, a look at how the coaches substitution patterns have affected the NBA Finals
When the Miami Heat made their biggest run of Game 3, a 15-3 stretch at the end of third quarter, they had LeBron James and Dwyane Wade on the floor. The Oklahoma City Thunder, meanwhile, had three of their best four players sitting on the bench.  

Spoelstra is coaching desperate. In terms of the players on the floor, he is micro-managing every possession. He's repeatedly called timeouts after the Thunder have made 4-0 or 5-0 "runs". In the last month, he's changed his starting lineup six times. In contrast, Brooks has kept the same starting line-up for over a year and a half, ever since Kendrick Perkins was acquired at last season’s trade deadline. 

Twenty years later, there's a good chance 6 of the 12 players on Team USA are playing in the NBA Finals. Miami almost always has at least two All-Star caliber players on the floor; the Thunder need to do the same. As this series goes forward, the best chance for Oklahoma City to win is for Durant, Westbrook, Harden and Ibaka to play 40+ minutes.

Friday, June 15, 2012

Coaching Adjustments In The NBA Finals

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At RealGM, a look at how Miami changed the Finals between Games 1 and 2 and how Oklahoma City can counter:
Erik Spoelstra made a critical adjustment between Games 1 and 2, moving Chris Bosh back into the starting lineup in place of Udonis Haslem. With a starting frontcourt of Bosh, LeBron James and Shane Battier, Miami spread out the Oklahoma City defense, creating driving lanes for their stars and open jumpers for their role players.
And with Bosh on the floor instead of Haslem, who has struggled with his jumper throughout the postseason, Oklahoma City can't cheat off any of the other three Miami starters. Bosh's ability to space the floor at 6'11, 235 and occupy the opponent's best frontcourt defender away from the basket completely changes the Heat's offense.
In the fourth quarter, with Perkins on the bench, the Heat’s small-ball lineup wasn’t nearly as dominant. Instead, when they playing lineups that featured James Harden and only one big man, Oklahoma City spaced the floor as effectively as Miami, resulting in a thrilling finish where Durant had an open 10-foot shot to tie the game in the final moments.

Tuesday, June 12, 2012

NBA Finals Preview

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At RealGM, a preview of the series we've all been waiting for:
The difference is, by 2010, both Boston’s Big Three and Kobe Bryant were already on the downside of their careers. In contrast, LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, James Harden and Serge Ibaka are still in their prime. Their average age is a little under 25-years-old.

With several key players from the 2012 Olympic qualifying pool (Dwight Howard, LaMarcus Aldridge, Derrick Rose) injured, there’s a good chance half of Team USA’s 12-man roster will be playing in the series. Ibaka, meanwhile, will have a huge role on
a Spanish team with the most talent of any international squad in the modern era.

In many ways, the series between the Heat and the Thunder represents the future of the NBA. The stars of both teams learned the game on the AAU circuit, where the only way to win national competitions
was to play with, rather than against, other elite players. Now, in the biggest national competition of them all, they’re playing in a series that essentially pits two AAU All-Star teams against each other.

Sunday, June 10, 2012

The Legacy Of Boston's Big Three

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At RealGM, a look at the impact Boston's Big Three has had on the NBA:
When the Boston Celtics assembled their Big Three in the summer of 2007, a 35-year-old Shaquille and Zydrunas Ilgauskas were the second-leading scorers on Dwyane Wade and LeBron James’ teams respectively. Five years later, Boston’s run was ended in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals by a Big Three of the Miami Heat they influentially helped create.

In Boston, they formed a trio better than the sum of its parts. Garnett, one of the most athletic and skilled 7’0 of all-time, anchored the defense, while his passing ability was the perfect offensive complement to two knock-down shooters. On the perimeter, Pierce and Allen had complementary games, despite both being 6’5+ wings with career averages of 20+ points on 45% shooting. Even though he lacked elite athleticism, Pierce was an dominant isolation scorer. Allen, one of the best three-point shooters in NBA history, didn’t need to play with the ball in his hands.
Wade, LeBron and Bosh received a lot of criticism for their unprecedented decision to team up in the summer of 2010, but one of the driving forces behind “The Decision” was a Celtics team with an almost unprecedented amount of talent. Rondo, after making the last three All-Star and All-Defensive teams, has a chance to be a Hall of Famer, which would make Boston the first team since the 1980’s with four future Hall of Famers playing major roles.

Thursday, June 7, 2012

Chris Bosh's Time To Shine

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At RealGM, a look at the perennially underrated Chris Bosh on the eve of Game 6:  
With the Miami Heat down 3-2 to the suddenly revitalized Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals, the season of a team bigger than the sport they play in will come down to an injured forward who wasn’t even the best player on his high school team. From the very beginning of his basketball career, Chris Bosh has been misunderstood and underappreciated; Game 6 is his chance to change that. 

Bosh, meanwhile, became one of the NBA’s most dangerous scorers. A skilled and athletic 6’11, 225 forward with a 7’3 wingspan, he could get an extremely accurate shot off against almost any defender in the league. By his third season, at the age of 21, he averaged 22.5 points, 9.2 rebounds and 2.6 assists on 50.5% shooting. 

For the next four seasons, Bosh was stunningly consistent, scoring at least 22 points and averaging less than 10 rebounds a game only once. But because his game revolved around skill and finesse rather than power, he was written off as soft, maligned for what he could not do rather than appreciated for what he could.

Tuesday, June 5, 2012

Passing The Torch Out West

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At RealGM, a look at how the Western Conference Finals could mark the end of an era:
And after five games in the Western Conference Finals, one thing is clear: if Kevin Durant, James Harden and Russell Westbrook can get to the rim, there's no one on San Antonio’s roster who can stop them from finishing. Several times in Game 5, Duncan could do nothing but try to take a charge as the Thunder's young stars contorted in the air around him for a layup.

Popovich has reenacted Pat Riley's career journey, from the Showtime Lakers to the clutch-and-grab New York Knicks, in reverse. His teams have gone from playing a halfcourt oriented defensive system to a free-flowing, fast-paced offensive one, an evolution that has mirrored the league's as a whole, now that the first generation of players who grew up in the post-Jordan era have begun to take over the NBA.

But while San Antonio has done their best to adapt to the new era, Oklahoma City has a chance to define it. The Thunder, without a low post scorer or a frontcourt player capable of creating their own shot, run their offense through the perimeter,
with three young stars sharing the spotlight and the ball.

President Obama Is Now Judge Dredd

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At PolicyMic, a look at the similarities between the Sylvester Stallone movie and the CIA's unmanned drone program:
In Sylvester Stallone’s futuristic thriller Judge Dredd, Stallone plays a police officer who serves as judge, jury, and executioner. Set in a dystopian future where civilization does not exist outside of heavily fortified cities, the movie posits a world where armed judges have unlimited power to take the law into their own hands.

But while the idea of a completely unaccountable extra-judicial “judge” seems un-American, as the New York Times revealed in a front page story last week about President Obama’s use of drones in the war on terror, the concept is no longer confined to the world of fiction. If their reporting is correct, the only things distinguishing Obama from Dredd are their choice of facial accessories and preferred methods for divvying out justice.

Without being glib, Obama’s underlying assumption bears repeating: as the president, he can order the death of any male above the age of 14 in any country the CIA suspects Al-Qaeda is using as a base of operations. Not only can these men not appeal their death sentences, there’s no way for them to know of the sentence until a missile dropped from thousands of miles away kills them and anyone “associating” with them.

Saturday, June 2, 2012

Mike Trout Makes A Splash

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At SB Nation Dallas, a look at Mike Trout, a rising young star for the LA Angels:
You don't need to be a very serious baseball fan to recognize Mike Trout's talent: the Angels young outfielder is big (6'1 220), really fast and hits the ball really hard.

At only 20 years old, he's been putting up historic numbers in his first 130 at-bats this season: .303/.366./.521 with 5 HR's and 16 RBI's. There have been only 14 players in MLB history who have matched Trout's performance so far at the age of 20; 10 are in the Hall of Fame and the 11th is Alex Rodriguez.

He showed Rangers fans what he could in the Angels 4-2 victory on Friday night.

Friday, June 1, 2012

NBA Draft 2012: Five "Biggest" Gambles

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At SB Nation, a look at the five players with tremendous upside potential in the 2012 draft:
Players considered good enough to be drafted by NBA teams usually have either high-level statistical production or high-level physical tools. Ones with both, like Anthony Davis, are usually selected at the very top of the lottery. 
The rest, lacking in one of the two categories, are obviously more difficult to evaluate. But the ones that end up haunting GMs the most are high-upside players who weren't able to consistently dominate in college, either because they ended up taking a guy who didn't develop or passing on a guy who did. 
1. Andre Drummond 
2. Perry Jones III 
3. Quincy Miller 
4. Meyers Leonard 
5. Royce White